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SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7

Shoe Repairs And Several Other Things When I Was 7
My Dad repaired most of our shoes believe it or not, I can hardly believe it myself now. With 7 pairs of shoes always needing repairs I think he was quite clever to learn how to “Keep us in shoe Leather” to coin a phrase!

He bought several different sizes of cast iron cobbler’s “lasts”. Last, the old English “Laest” meaning footprint. Lasts were holding devices shaped like a human foot. I have no idea where he would have bought the shoe leather. Only that it was a beautiful creamy, shiny colour and the smell was lovely.

But I do remember our shoes turned upside down on and fitted into these lasts, my Dad cutting the leather around the shape of the shoe, and then hammering nails, into the leather shape. Sometimes we’d feel one or 2 of those nails poking through the insides of our shoes, but our dad always fixed it.

Hiking and Swimming Galas
Dad was a very outdoorsy type, unlike my mother, who was probably too busy indoors. She also enjoyed the peace and quiet when he took us off for the day!

Anyway, he often took us hiking in the mountains where we’d have a picnic of sandwiches and flasks of tea. And more often than not we went by steam train.

We loved poking our heads out of the window until our eyes hurt like mad from a blast of soot blowing back from the engine. But sore, bloodshot eyes never dampened our enthusiasm.

Dad was an avid swimmer and water polo player, and he used to take us to swimming galas, as they were called back then. He often took part in these galas. And again we always travelled by steam train.

Rowing Over To Ireland’s Eye
That’s what we did back then, we had to go by rowboat, the only way to get to Ireland’s eye, which is 15 minutes from mainland Howth. From there we could see Malahide, Lambay Island and Howth Head of course. These days you can take a Round Trip Cruise on a small cruise ship!

But we thoroughly enjoyed rowing and once there we couldn’t wait to climb the rocks, and have a swim. We picnicked and watched the friendly seals doing their thing and showing off.

Not to mention all kinds of birdlife including the Puffin.The Martello Tower was also interesting but a bit dangerous to attempt entering. I’m getting lost in the past as I write, and have to drag myself back to the present.

Fun Outings with The camera Club
Dad was also a very keen amateur photographer, and was a member of a camera Club. There were many Sunday photography outings and along with us came other kids of the members of the club.

And we always had great fun while the adults busied themselves taking photos of everything and anything, it seemed to us. Dad was so serious about his photography that he set up a dark room where he developed and printed his photographs.

All black and white at the time. He and his camera club entered many of their favourites in exhibitions throughout Europe. I’m quite proud to say that many cups and medals were won by Dad. They have been shared amongst all his grandchildren which I find quite special.

He liked taking portraits of us kids too, mostly when we were in a state of untidiness, usually during play. Dad always preferred the natural look of messy hair and clothes in the photos of his children.

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Trust Deed Investors: One Way to Get Investment Income in a Low Return Environment

It is most generally acknowledged that the person’s early years such as the twenties is the best time to start investing. After all, you have all of life ahead to invest money which is why so many books on investment – most actually – are geared towards the twenties. Fewer are towards the thirties, and even fewer towards the forties and retirement. This may be partly why trust deed investing is so appealing. In today’s low-return low-interest-rate environment, trust deed investing is one of the few investment options that can help you substantially increase the amount of your monthly income. And little expense is involved. (Although risk is another matter).What is trust deed investment?Trust deeds are like a private real estate loan. If you’re a real estate entrepreneur (for instance) who wants to snap a fast loan to rehab a piece of property in order to sell at a profit, trust deed investors may be your best choice. They’d give you the loan in a blink’s eye far faster than the bank where it takes drawn out negotiations and filing of hefty tomes until you get that loan. (If at all). The average amount of time is 60 days. Some entrepreneurs cannot wait that long. They need to snap that deal and that’s where the trust deed investor comes in handy. He forks over your required funds within that same week, sometimes that same day at 1/3rd of the paperwork and nil of the stress. The downside is that the borrower pays a much higher rate than he might for a mortgage, typically 8% to 12% (since the investor is taking more of a risk).How does it work?The process is such that the buyer works through a third-party loan originator who underwrites and facilitates the loan for one year. Schedules can be restructured, but generally the borrower makes interest-only payments each month and a balloon payment of the principal once the loan reaches its maturity.So let’s say you’re the investor and you fund 250,000 at 10% APR, you’ll either receive 12 interest payments of $2,083 each, totaling $25,000, and at the end of the year, get back your $250,000. Or, in the worst case scenario, you pocket the defaulting borrower’s land.Other things you’ll want to know…There’s no set minimum for investing in a single trust deed. They can be fractionalized – that is, divided into several portions – but loan originators generally prefer to deal with one investor per loan.Finding trust deeds to invest in can be difficult. Your best bet may be to find an experienced broker or advisor with a history of success. These have likely established relationships with originators and you can work through them. If you don’t want to hunt these deals down, you might invest in a trust deed fund run by a professional manager. These funds currently pay between 8% and 11% per year and have minimum investment amounts that start around $50,000.To acquire credibility, you may want to consider running for SEC licensing.Pluses of investing in trust deedsThe pluses are particularly topical now with the Fed hiking its interest rates and maybe hiking them still higher. Trust deed investments protect you from the shenanigans for rising rates because they’re held to maturity and have short durations. You can also use any sort of cash to invest. You automatically have the right to foreclose on any property when the borrower has defaulted on the loan. Trust deed investing can open the door to other investment opportunities. It also offers a return on investment that comes in at higher than average; expect a typical return of 9 to 14 percent. And, if managed well, this type of investing is secure. This is because it has a guaranteed yield.Minuses of investing in trust deedsThe obvious minus is the very likely possibility of your investment defaulting, namely the borrower not paying you back. This happens to approximately 85 % of private money lenders at some time in their lives, some more than others. Redfin, a residential real estate company that provides web-based real estate database and brokerage services, predicts that it is going to happen to many more this coming year when housing prices are going to lurch beyond restraintManaging risk…How can you prevent losing your money? Experts strongly advise lenders to research client’s credit history and trustworthiness. They also recommend that you research the value of the client’s property and the extraneous market environment to the point that you physically investigate the building yourself. If you’re not up to this, consider hiring an advisor with experience in this market. Before you invest, analyze a fund’s portfolio and the loan loss reserves. As with individual trust deeds, you may want to have a professional do this.In short…NerdWallet, one of the leading advisory websites on investments has this to say: If you exercise due caution, trust deed investments can be a great income generator at a time when investments that produce good returns are few and far between.You may want to consider it.